Research

Recent Keynote Lectures

• 2023 IMF Mundell-Fleming Lecture video, Slides, Written Remarks, Short Piece in IMF’s F&D Magazine, Podcast

• 2023 SED Plenary video, Slides

Books

• The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default

Working Papers

• Putting the ‘Finance’ into ‘Public Finance’: A Theory of Capital Gains Taxation

  Aguiar, Mark, Benjamin Moll, and Florian Scheuer (2024): “Putting the ‘Finance’ into ‘Public Finance’: A Theory of Capital Gains Taxation”

• Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador and Cristina Arellano (2023): “Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model”

• Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2022): “Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies” (Accepted at American Economic Review)

• Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath (2013): “Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises”.

Journal Publications

• Who are the Hand-to-Mouth?

  Aguiar, Mark, Mark Bils and Corina Boar (forthcoming): “Who are the Hand-to-Mouth?” (Conditional Accept Review of Economic Studies) PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited

  Aguiar, Mark, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole, and Zachary Stangebye (2022): “Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited,” Journal of Political Economy, 130 (5):1147-1183, May 2022 PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code for Numerical Simulations – BibTeX and abstract

• Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men

  Aguiar, Mark, Mark Bils, Kerwin Kofi Charles, and Erik Hurst (2021): “Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men,” Journal of Political Economy. PDF – Journal link – Data and Programs – BibTeX and abstract

• Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models

  Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2020): “Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models,” American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2783-2818. PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code for Numerical Simulations – Code for Figures – Additional code – BibTeX and abstract

• On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis (2020): “On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing,” IMF Economic Review, 68(1): 163-194. PDF – Journal link – Slides – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2019): “A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models,” Journal of Economic Theory, 183: 842-875. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Hugo Hopenhayn and Ivan Werning (2019): “Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity,” Econometrica, 87(2): 423-462. PDF – Journal link – NBER Working Paper – Slides – BibTeX and abstract

• Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2016): “Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies,” Journal of Economic Theory, 161: 37-75. PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath (2015): “Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1727-1779. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality

  Aguiar, Mark, and Mark Bils (2015): “Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality,” American Economic Review 105(9): 2725-2756 PDF – Journal link – Appendix – Data and Programs – BibTeX and abstract

• “Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure”

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2013): “Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure,” Journal of Political Economy, 121(3): 437-492. PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Data – BibTeX and abstract

• Time Use during the Great Recession

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst and Loukas Karabarbounis (2013): “Time Use during the Great Recession,” American Economic Review, 103(5): 1664-96. PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Data and Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Recent Developments in the Economics of Time Use

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst and Loukas Karabarbounis (2012): “Recent Developments in the Economics of Time Use,” Annual Review of Economics, 4: 373-397. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2011): “Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(2): 651-697. PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang,” Review of Economic Studies, 76(1): 1-31. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2007): “Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3): 969-1006. PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Data – BibTeX and abstract

• Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend

  Aguiar, Mark and Gita Gopinath (2007): “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend,” Journal of Political Economy, 115(1): 69-102 PDF – Journal link – Data and Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Life-Cycle Prices and Production

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2007): “Life-Cycle Prices and Production,” American Economic Review, 97(5): 1533-1559. PDF – Journal link – Data – BibTeX and abstract

• Determining Underlying Macroeconomic Fundamentals during Emerging Market Crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

  Aguiar, Mark and Fernando Broner (2006): “Determining Underlying Macroeconomic Fundamentals during Emerging Market Crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(4): 699-724. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates, and the Current Account

  Aguiar, Mark and Gita Gopinath (2006): “Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates, and the Current Account,” Journal of International Economics, 69(1): 64-83. PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Fire-Sale FDI and Liquidity Crises

  Aguiar, Mark, and Gita Gopinath (2005): “Fire-Sale FDI and Liquidity Crises,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(3): 439-452. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Investment, Devaluation, and Foreign Currency Exposure: The Case of Mexico

  Aguiar, Mark (2005): “Investment, Devaluation, and Foreign Currency Exposure: The Case of Mexico,” Journal of Development Economics, 78(1): 95-113. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Consumption versus Expenditure

  Aguiar, Mark, and Eirk Hurst (2005): “Consumption versus Expenditure,” Journal of Political Economy, 113(5): 919-948. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

Handbook Chapters

• The Macroeconomics of Time Allocation

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2016): “The Macroeconomics of Time Allocation,” Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume 2. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises

  Aguiar, Mark, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole, and Zachary Stangebye (2016): “Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises,” Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume 2. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Sovereign Debt

  Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2014): ”Sovereign Debt,” Handbook of International Economics, Vol 4, North-Holland: 647-87. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

Conference Volumes

• Sovereign Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador and Ricardo Alves Monteiro (2023): “Sovereign Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds” PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath (2014): “Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 104(5). PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• The Life-Cycle Profile of Time Spent on Job Search

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst and Loukas Karabarbounis (2013): “The Life-Cycle Profile of Time Spent on Job Search.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 111-116. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• The Costs and Consequences of Sovereign Borrowing

  Aguiar, Mark (2024): “The Costs and Consequences of Sovereign Borrowing,” IMF Econoic Review PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Expropriation Dynamics

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Expropriation Dynamics,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 473-479. PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Emerging Market Fluctuations: The Role of Interest Rate and Productivity Shocks

  Aguiar, Mark and Gita Gopinath (2006): “Emerging Market Fluctuations: The Role of Interest Rate and Productivity Shocks,” Tenth Annual Conference on the Central Bank of Chile: Current Account and External Financing PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

Other Publications

• The Increase in Leisure Inequality: 1965-2005

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2009): The Increase in Leisure Inequality: 1965-2005, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 2009. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Permanent Income Hypothesis

  Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst (2008): “Permanent Income Hypothesis,” New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008 (online 2016). PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

Published Discussions

• Comment on: “Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy” by Roberto Chang, Andres Fernández, Adam Gulan

  Aguiar, Mark (2017): “Comment on: ‘Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy’ by Roberto Chang, Andres Fernández, Adam Gulan”, Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference Series on Public Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 85: 110-113. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Discussion of “Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk”

  Aguiar, Mark (2013): “Discussion of ‘Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk’, Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference Series on Public Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(1): 63-65. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Comment on Rong Qian, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion”

  Aguiar, Mark (2010): “Comment on Rong Qian, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff ‘On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion,’” NBER Macroannual, 2010. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Discussion of Clayne Pope’s “Measuring the distribution of material well-being: US trends”

  Aguiar, Mark (2009): “Discussion of Clayne Pope’s ‘Measuring the distribution of material well-being: US trends,’ Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference Series on Public Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(1): 79-82. PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract